POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE IN GUJARAT?
Yogendra Yadav, the psephologist, puts his reputation at stake, says BJP will lose Gujarat
- kanwar manjit singh
Yogendra Yadav, the psephologist, puts his reputation at stake, says BJP will lose Gujarat



RAHUL GANDHI WILL defeat Narendra Modi in Gujarat, says one of India's top psephologists, Yogendra Yadav. Now leading Swaraj India as a political force, Yogendra Yadav said there is no way the BJP can form the next government in Gujarat. He based his claim on a close study of multiple tracker polls. 

Yadav, himself an academic-turned-activist-turned politician, and a prime moral force behind Aam Aadmi Party before he was kicked out in a most unseemly fashion by Arvind Kejriwal and his cohort and formed Swaraj Abhiyan, is taken seriously by most political pundits.
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Yogendra Yadav will also be up for judgement on December 18 along with Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. 
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Yogendra Yadav analysed a poll survey conducted by a TV channel in conjunction with Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), and a few more surveys also, and came up with three possible scenarios. Not one of them will be to the liking of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

"The most likely outcome of the coming elections in Gujarat is a clear defeat for the BJP and, consequently, a clear victory for the Congress," Yadav has now said, having analysed poll survey data.

He said the surveys show that the BJP and Congress could either be neck and neck at 43% vote share each, or BJP could garner 41% and lag behind Congress with 45%, or, the BJP could even be virtually wiped off the Gujarat map by the Congress.

In no scenario can the BJP form the next government, Yogendra Yadav has said.

As per his predictions, a 43% vote share each will leave BJP with 86 seats and Congress with 92 seats. Gujarat Assembly has a total of 182 seats. Yogendra said this was the most likely outcome.
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In one of the scenarios that Yadav painted, the BJP could even face a near total  rout in Gujarat. In no scenario can it form the next government.
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If the BJP share fell to 41%, that would mean a mere 65 seats with Congress walking away with 113. 

Yadav consulted and studied several pre-election tracker surveys carried out separately by India TV, Times Now-VMR, and ABP-CSDS.
 

He said a victory of BJP in Gujarat would have meant little, but a defeat would mean an earthquake for the party. Yadav said this was because the hype of the ‘Gujarat model’ has finally been punctured by the reality of rural distress and little progress on most social indicators. 

"The most likely outcome of the coming elections in Gujarat is a clear defeat for the BJP and, consequently, a clear victory for the Congress," he said, adding he based his deductions on surveys that were well conducted. About the key survey undertaken by Lokniti-CSDS, with which Yadav had remained associated in the past till he jumped headlong into politics, the much respected psephologist said it has "made public all its findings in a fairly transparent way."
 

Yadav said his own feedback from Gujarat was in line with the findings of the surveys. Now that he has staked his reputation as a psephologist, based, of course, on surveys in which he has had little hand, Yogendra Yadav will also be up for judgement on December 18 along with Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. 
 

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